移民：逃脱社会主义命运魔咒的行动

俄罗斯在形式上已经算是“民主化”了一轮，中国现在还在坚持走中共坚称的所谓“社会主义道路”，但这两国最近几年在一件事情上殊途同归：其社会成员只要具备一定的经济条件，就千方百计要移民。

先说中国的移民。近两年以来，关于中国人移民的话题越来越多。有严肃的调查，如汇丰银行调查报告（2010年）称，月收入在1.2万元以上或流动资产在50万元以上的中国内地富裕人群中，60%都计划在未来十年移民；中国银行和财富研究公司胡润百富（hurun report）于今年10月下旬公布的调查报告称，资产1000万以上欲移民者达一半以上；也有真假无法查证的，比如微博上流传移民咨询公司的广告词是“如果你有1000万，不移民对不起你全家人”。据坊间流传，讨论移民已经成了熟人聚会的互相问候的话：“你准备移民了吗？”据说一些朋友或要好的同事相约一道移民，有可能在同一区域或者相邻区域买房，好互相照应……

还有一张让人笑不出来的恶搞广告画：右下方配有李连杰微笑着的照片，上面配的词竟然是“有权有势的中国人移民，无权无势的中国人偷渡，这是一个国家还是一个监狱？——国家有这样的吗？当然是监狱，要不然，为什么人们不管有钱无钱，总想逃离这个国家——你听说过有美国人偷渡吗？”

对于这种移民潮产生的原因，中国媒体分析强作镇定，闪烁其辞地说大多数人移民主要是为了孩子的教育与成长，他们人虽然入了外国国籍，财富都还留在国内，因为他们习惯了中国的商业环境，有这边的社会关系网络，无法割舍。但很多人私下里表示，他们对中国的社会问题越来越担心，比如独生子女政策、食品安全、污染、贪腐、教育质量差和薄弱的法律制度。最近中国央行货币政策委员会委员李稻葵在接受采访时说了句真话，认为要改善对财富创造者的社会环境，让他们的心留在祖国。

再来看看曾充当中国共产革命教师爷、已在政治民主化上先行一步的俄罗斯的精英为何要移民。

据俄罗斯科学院世界经济和国际关系研究所最新统计称，最近3年以来已有120万俄罗斯人移民海外。全俄公众舆论调查中心最新民调结果显示，有22%的俄罗斯公民想离开俄罗斯到外国定居——1991年苏联刚解体时，“想到海外定居”的俄罗斯居民只占 全国人口的5%。这一轮“移民潮” 还具有以下特点：打算移民海外的俄罗斯人身份“高端化”、“精英化”，大多是受过高等教育且具有专业特长的人才，以及身价不菲的中产阶级，他们带走的正是俄罗斯国家发展所急需的高科技和资金。

俄罗斯人移民的理由有许多与中国人相似，比如为了孩子，为了学业。但由于他们享有中国人没有的言论自由，因此说出了中国人不愿意明说的理由：

企业家担心不安全。在俄罗斯创办一家企业要花费相当大的财力和精力，但财产所有权没有保障。伦敦有很多这样的俄罗斯商人：当他们自己或他们的政治庇护人不受政府欢迎时，他们不得不立马搭乘英国航空的航班来到了英国。

社会上升管道梗阻。中产阶级普遍认为，在俄罗斯成熟壮大的国家资本主义制度断绝了受过良好教育的年轻人上升的途径。

生活品质糟糕。无论是精英还是中产阶级，都认为俄罗斯的教育体系已接近崩溃的边缘。从入学名额到大学文凭，什么都可以用钱来买。他们认为自己有责任给孩子提供在海外生活和工作的选择。

中俄两国人民想移民的理由只有两点不同，俄罗斯人提及了一个重要的政治因素，即他们讨厌普京的独裁与政府的舆论控制。一些受过良好教育的俄罗斯人认为，政府控制下的电视新闻、电影甚至流行音乐领域让他们与国际社会脱节。这些在政府控制下的电视新闻从不批评普京或梅德韦杰夫，每天重复说西方国家是我们的敌人。他们看不到俄罗斯短期内能从普京的新的独裁下解放出来。

对政治制度与媒体控制的批评，在中国有关移民的调查中未曾提及，不知是调查者有意回避这一点，还是移民者对独裁体制并不痛恨。但中国人都提及他们担心中国可怕的环境污染。这一点则是俄罗斯人未曾担心的。也就是说，中国人移民的理由主要在生活层面，俄罗斯人多点权利意识。这与当年两国改革的动力类似：俄罗斯人需要言论自由，中国人需要吃饱饭，前者是满足口的社会功能，后者是满足口的生理功能。

想走的人，在接受调查人群当中，俄国占62.5%，中国接近60%。

作为一位曾经生活在专制下的中国知识分子，我充分理解中俄两国人士为逃脱社会主义魔咒而采取的移民行动，只是世界各国不可能无限制地接纳移民，俄罗斯人口少还好办，中国人口众多，移民潮起的结果必将会使各国关闭正在变得狭窄的移民大门。

Emigration: the move to flee from the fatalistic spell of Socialism

http://hqlenglish.blogspot.com/2011/11/emigration-chinese-and-russians.html

Written By He Qinglian on November 8, 2011
Translated By kRiZcPEc

http://voachineseblog.com/heqinglian/2011/11/immigration/

While Russia has in formality completed a round of “democratization”, China still insists to stick with what the CCP refers to as the “Socialist path”. There is one thing these two countries have in common in the last two years: their citizens would try everything possible means to emigrate if they meet the necessary financial requirements.

Let’s first talk about the Chinese emigrants. In the past two years, topics relating to the Chinese emigrants are on the increase. There were serious studies of these topics, such as the HSBC’s study in 2010 which stated that: of the wealthy group in mainland China who make more than 12,000 RMB each month or have above 500 thousand in liquidity, 60% are planning to emigrate within the next decade; and the survey jointly conducted by the Bank of China and Hurun Report which findings were published in late October revealed that more than half of those who have ten million or more in assets intend to emigrate.

There was also information that was hard to verify, like the alleged advertisement of an emigration company that has been circulating on Weibo: “If you own ten million and do not emigrate, you fail your entire family.”

As said, emigration has become the greeting words when friends gather together: “Are you planning to emigrate?” It is also said that friends or co-workers with good relationship would plan to emigrate together, and if possible, buy flats in the same or adjacent districts in the new country so that they could take care of each other…

And there was a kuso advertisement drawing that one cannot laugh at: in the lower right there was a picture of Jet Li smiling, and the words above the picture was: “Those who have power and influence emigrate, those who lack both resort to smuggling. Is this a country or a prison? Would a country be like this? No, it surely is a prison. Otherwise, how come people would want to flee from here whether they have money or not? Ever heard of American illegal immigrants?”

Regarding the cause of this wave of emigration, China’s media pretend to be calm in their analysis. They said the majority of those who emigrate were for the sake of their child’s education and growth. While these people personally obtained foreign nationalities, their assets remain in China because they are accustomed to the business environment in China, and they have social connection here, something that they cannot part from.

But, many revealed privately that they are increasingly worried about the social problems of China: the one-child policy, food safety, pollution, corruption, poor education quality and the weak legal system. Recently, Li Daokui, a member of the China central bank’s monetary policy committee, told the truth during an interview. He thought the social environment for the wealth generators need to be improved, so as to keep their hearts in the country.

And now let’s look at why elites of Russia, the country that had served as the mentor of the Chinese Communist Revolution and completed one step ahead of China in political democratization, want to emigrate.

According to the latest statistics from the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, in the past three years 1.2 million Russians moved overseas. The latest poll by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VtsIOM) showed that 22% of Russian citizens want to leave Russia and settle overseas. Back in 1991 when the U.S.S.R. just disintegrated, there was only 5% of the country’s population who wanted to settle overseas.

This wave of emigration has in addition the following characteristics: the Russians planning to emigrate have become “high-endified” and “eliticized” in terms of social status; most of them had received higher education and are talents with professional specialties; they are members of the middle class with high net worth. What these people take away from Russia are high-technologies and funds that the country desperately needs for development.

Many of the reasons for the Russians to emigrate are similar to that of the Chinese, such as for their children and for their study. And since the Russians enjoy what the Chinese do not have: freedom of speech, they give reasons that the Chinese are unwilling to state explicitly—

The entrepreneurs are worried about insecurity. It takes massive money and energy to found a company in Russia, yet there is no protection for property. There are in London many Russian business persons like this: when they themselves or their political benefactors are not welcome by the government, they would have to instantly board a British Airway flight to come to Britain.

The channels for people to move up the social ladder are blocked. The middle class in general think that, the mature state capitalism of Russia cuts off the ways the young people who received good education to move upward.

Poor quality of life. Whether it is the elite or the middle class, both think that the Russian education system is on the brink of collapse. From enrollment quota to university certificate, all can purchased with money. They think they have the obligation to provide with their children the choice of living and working overseas.

There are only two differences in the reasons the Chinese and Russians who intend to emigrate. The Russians raised a significant political factor: they hate Vladimir Putin’s dictatorship and the public opinion control by the government. Some Russians who had received good education think that the government-controlled TV news, movies, and even popular music are making them out of touch with the international community. These government-controlled TV news never criticize Vladimir Putin or Dmitry Medvedev, day after day they repeat the message that Western countries are enemies of Russia.

The elite and the middle class do not see the possibility of Russia being liberated from the new dictatorship of Vladimir Putin in the short run.

The criticism of the political system and media control were not mentioned in the emigration-related poll in China. One cannot tell whether this was the result of the poll conductors deliberately sidestepping the issues, or the emigrants having no hatred of the autocratic system. But the Chinese did mention the dreadful environmental pollution in China, a problem that the Russians have no apprehension about. That’s to say, the reasons for the Chinese people to emigrate are mainly about aspects of life, and the Russians in comparison have a stronger sense of rights awareness.

This is similar to the impetuses that drove both countries to reform respectively in earlier years: the Russians needed freedom of speech and the Chinese wanted to be well-fed. The former sought to satisfy the social function of the mouth; the latter, its physiological function.

Among the people surveyed, those who intend to leave made up 62.5% of the Russian respondents and nearly 60% of the Chinese counterparts.

As a Chinese intellectual that had lived under dictatorship, I fully understand the emigration move the Chinese and the Russians have taken to flee from the fatalistic spell of Socialism. However, the countries around the world cannot take in unlimited immigrants. With a small population, Russia may not cause problems because of its emigrants; yet China, with its huge population, would definitely prompt countries to close the door of immigration that is narrowing down if the wave of exodus from the country starts.