如何才能让中国高兴?

中国最近很不高兴,原因是以美国主导的亚太九国峰会召开,中国没被邀请加入TPP协议。正好《美澳新安全协议》又于此时签署,这无疑让中国更不高兴。

中国方面朝野论辩之士一齐出动,发了不少文章,各种反应光怪陆离。有代替TPP成员担心的,比如那些认为“TPP协议没有中国参加是没有意义的”;有让人看了后弄不清这个外交回合中谁是赢家,比如阮次山的奇文“回应TPP议题,中国给美国软钉子”;更多的文章认为这是美国打压中国的阴谋,如“美国借TPP发动亚太攻势 目标直指中国”, “美国已完成东亚战略布局 中国需严阵以待”,“东盟联合抗华阵线已经形成”,等等。如果不看中文世界之外的报导,也不熟悉中国对美国的“阴谋论”是老调调,准保以为世界进入以中美为对峙双方的第三次世界大战前夕。

但这些反应还是很准确地传递了一个信息:就是中国真的很在意这次未被邀请事件。亚太地区是中国的家门口,其中一些国家算是中国近年来刻意交好的近邻,比如新加坡。这次这么多远方宾客与亚洲地主举行联谊,作为亚洲最大国家的中国“未获邀请”,实在太不给面子,是可忍,孰不可忍?

且先看看TPP的由来。TPP原为2005年新加坡、新西兰、智利、文莱在APEC框架内签定的多边自由贸易协定,起初国际社会并未给予多少关注。直至美国“重返亚洲”,并于2009年开启TPP谈判之后,才为世界所关注。TPP成员至今扩展至9个。日本由于本国农业部门的反对暂未参加,刚宣布加入谈判。该协议有望成为世界最大自由贸易区。

中国近年来由于成为世界上几个最大:最大廉价商品供给基地、发展中国家最大的吸引外资国,最大的能源需求国,最大的外汇储备拥有国。有了这几个“最大”,大多数国家与中国在不同的层面上有着这样或者那样的关系,按道理,诸国即使基于本身利益考量,也不应该将中国排斥在任何经济协议之外。

且看看这次“主导了将中国排除在TPP之外”的美国如何说吧。

奥巴马11月13日在夏威夷APEC峰会闭幕记者会上,使用迄今最强烈的言辞,称美国对中国的货币政策和贸易做法正在失去耐心,中国“已经长大成人”,在与世界其他国家打交道时需要像“成年人”那样行事;他还要求中国停止“玩弄”国际体系,因为“受够了(Enough’s enough.)”,中国“该适可而止了!” ”路透社11月14日用“ Obama On Chinese Economy: ‘Enough’s Enough’ Of ‘Gaming’ The International System”这样的标题来报道奥巴马的这次讲话。

奥巴马整篇讲话重点就是中国必须遵守国际社会的规则。他还提到了中国对知识产权的严重侵犯,强调中国的领导人需要“理解他们现在所扮演的角色与 20年或是30年前不一样了。那个时候,如果他们打破一些规则,那没有什么关系,不会有什么大的影响。现在他们长大成人了。他们将不得不以负责的方式帮助经营这个过程。”

中国对自己不遵守国际社会游戏规则其实心知肚明。当年在签订WTO协议时,据说总理朱镕基在国务院内部就有个讲话,大意是目前成功签订协议是当务之急,至于签了后,我们怎样遵守,可以灵活掌握。不少专家出去讲演时,也是这个论调,即先进门要紧,一旦进去了,爱怎样行事,则看中国自己的方便了。以后的十来年当中,中国也确实是这样做的。

当然,这种不遵守国际社会游戏规则不限于经济领域,在政治社会等其它领域中,北京也是如此做的。比如至今为止,中国一共签署了23项与人权有关的各种国际公约,除《公民权利和政治权利国际公约》之外,至今已批准了22项。但考诸中国现实,几乎没有践履其中大部分人权公约的相关承诺。

再回过头来看中国为何这次未获邀请参与TPP协议。白宫在回应凤凰电视台记者“中国尚未收到TPP成员国邀请”的提问时表示,TPP并非邀请制,而是必须表达意愿,同时必须愿意接受TPP自由贸易协定的高标准。

美国《侨报》是中国国务院侨办在美国办的老牌外宣华文媒体,该报于11月14日发表了一篇“没有中国的TPP架空了谁?”其中有一段这样的话:“细读TPP的要求,不难看出这个协议有排斥中国之意。协议要求绿色产品的关税降低是中国现阶段难以达到的;希望GDP能耗要降低是针对中国的;希望国有企业在买卖商品和服务时,必须以商业方式进行运作,显然针对中国的国有企业。”

一向混淆是非、以传播混杂着部分真相的谎言为己任的《侨报》还算明白中国不达标这个事实。因为中国的产品质量不达标(污染及加工过程不合格不符合绿色产品标准)、单位产品能耗之高远超过国际标准,以及国企参与国际竞争凭借国家特权背后支持等,多年来饱受国际社会诟病,美国等一直在等待中国“长大成人”,但中国却利用人家对“小孩”的善意给予的学步时间,希望自己永远得到孩子受照顾的特权。

中国外交部官员的回答也颇有喜感。国际司副司长庞森11月13日回应奥巴马讲话时表示:“如果这些规则是通过协议共同制订出来的而且中国是其中的一部分,那么中国将会遵守这些规则。如果规则是由一个国家或是几个国家决定的,中国没有遵守它们的义务。”

庞森这一回答其实是理解中国为何不遵守国际规则的钥匙。从WTO一直到所有国际人权公约,中国都未曾参与制订,是参与该游戏的后来者。中国之所以签署协议只是为了拿到进入国际社会的门票,但基于“中国未参与制订,因此不必遵守”这一政治逻辑,违规是天经地义的。只是此话以前在心里搁着,这次才算说出来了。

所以国际社会尤其是美国,今后要想让“中国高兴”,或是延续2009年以前对中国的“绥靖政策”,让中国持续享有不守规则的特权;或是当中国要参与某项国际协议时,由它主导规则的制订。如果觉得这样太难办,不请中国参与,如TPP这样让中国“未获邀请”,中国也会不高兴。而让世界老二的中国保持高兴,对于世界实在太重要了。

China has been very upset recently. The US-led APEC summit commenced with China not being invited to sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement; at the same time, the ANZUS treaty was renewed, an incident that upset China all the more.

China’s sophists, both inside the government and outside, acted together simultaneously. They wrote many articles, and gave all sorts of bizarre responses: some of them were worried about TPP member countries, like those who thought that the TPP without China’s participation would be meaningless; others wrote articles that made it hard for readers to figure out which country won in this round of diplomacy, one such example was an absurd piece written by Anthony Yuen, “Regarding the issues of TPP, China gave the U.S. some soft nails”; and there were even articles presenting the interpretation that the new TPP shown America’s intention to contain China, including “U.S. launching attacks through TPP, targeting China ”, “U.S. has completed its East Asia strategic arrangements, China should be vigilant”, “ASEAN united front against China has taken shape”, so on and so forth. Those who read reports from only the Chinese media and do not realize that China’s “U.S. conspiracy theories” is a recurring theme would surely think that the world is on the eve of the third world war with China and the U.S. standing off against each other.

Still, these responses conveyed very accurately a message: China’s really disturbed by not being invited to the TPP. The Asia-Pacific Region is the front yard of China, some of the countries in the region, like Singapore, are which China worked to improve ties with in recent years. This time, so many guests from afar came socializing with hosts in Asia while the region’s largest country, China, was not invited. That truly was not giving China face, should the country put up with this or not?

Let’s first look at where did the TPP come from. It was initially a multilateral free trade agreement signed between Singapore, New Zealand, Chile and Brunei within the APEC framework. The agreement received little international notice at first. It was only until after the U.S. “returned to Asia” and kick-started the TPP negotiation in 2009 that the agreement obtained global attention. By now there are [ten] members in the TPP. Japan, owing to its agricultural sector’s opposition, is not yet a full member and has only just announced to join in the negotiation. The agreement could create the world’s biggest free trade zone.

In recent years, China has become the world’s largest in several areas: the largest base for low-cost commodity supply; the largest attraction for foreign investment among developing countries; the country with the largest energy demand; and the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves. Thanks to these “largests”, most of the countries have to have ties with China in one way or another. Logically, out of consideration of their own interests, the [TPP member] countries should not have barred China from any economic agreement.

And Let’s see how the United States, which dominates the TPP that excludes China, said about this.

On November 13, U.S. President Obama spoke at the closing press conference of the APEC summit, using the harshest remarks to this date, claiming that the United States is losing patience with China’s monetary policy and trade practice, China “has grown up”, and should act like an adult when dealing with other countries; he also demanded China to stop gaming the international system, because “Enough is enough”, China should know when to stop. The Reuters ran on November 14 a report entitling “Obama On Chinese Economy: ‘Enough’s Enough’ Of ‘Gaming’ The International System” to cover his speech.

The main point of Obama’s speech was that China must play by the rules of the international community. He also mentioned the serious infringement China has on intellectual property, stressing that China’s leaders need to “understand that their role is different now than it might have been 20 years ago or 30 years ago, where if they were breaking some rules, it didn’t really matter, it did not have a significant impact. Now they’ve grown up, and so they’re going to have to help manage this process in a responsible way.”

China is in fact fully aware that it has not played by the rules of the international community. Back when China signed the WTO agreement, reportedly Premier Zhu Rongji said inside the State Council that the most important thing was to sign the agreement. After signing, there is leeway as to how China would abide by the rules. Many specialists were saying something similar when they delivered talks abroad, that is, what matters most is to get in first. Once China is in, how the country would act depends on its own convenience. That’s indeed how China’s approach has been in the ten-odd years that followed the country’s signing of the WTO agreement.

Of course, it’s not just economy that China is not playing by the rules of the international community, Beijing is doing the same thing in other areas like politics and society. For instance, China has up to now signed in total twenty three international conventions relating to human rights; with the exception of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), the country has so far ratified twenty-two conventions. Yet when looking at the real situation in China, one would find that the country’s pledges to these conventions are mostly unfulfilled.

And then let’s look at why China was not invited to sign the TPP agreement. In response to the point, “China has yet to receive any invitation from TPP member countries, raised by a reporter from Phoenixgf Television, a White House press secretary stated that “TPP is not something that one gets invited to. It’s something that one aspires to. So I think with regard to China, or any other country, it is up to them to determine whether they are ready to consider the high standards that are required of a TPP partner.”

Qiao Bao, a long-time external propaganda outlet run by the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, published on November 14 an article in which the following lines appeared:

“Read carefully the requirements of TPP, it’s not hard to figure out the agreement has the intention to exclude China. The requirement that green products tariff be lowered is something that is hard for China to comply at this stage; that energy consumption per GDP be reduced is targeting China; that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) must operate in accordance with business practices when buying and selling goods and services is clearly singling out China’s SOEs.

While recognized as its mission to spread lies that are mixed with bits of truth and had been confusing what’s right and what’s not, Qiao Bao still has to acknowledge that China is not up to the TPP standards. Because of the products manufactured not meeting the standards as a result of pollution, and processing procedures not meeting the requirements for green products; of energy consumption per unit of products far exceeding international standards; and of the SOEs joining in international competitions with the support of state privileges and so on, China has for years been criticized by the international community. Countries like the United States have been waiting for China “to come of age”, yet China is utilizing others’ kindness toward a “child” and the time given to “learn to walk”, hoping that the preferential treatment it gets as a child would last forever.

And the reply from Foreign Ministry official was rather hilarious. In response to the speech by President Obama, Pang Sen, deputy director-general at China’s Foreign Ministry said on November 13 that, “If the rules are made collectively through agreement and China is a part of it, then China will abide by them. If rules are decided by one or even several countries, China does not have the obligation to abide by that.”

This answer from Pang Sen was effectively the key to understanding why China doesn’t play by international rules. From WTO to each and every of the international human rights conventions, China has not taken part in making them, it was only a latecomer. China signed those agreements only out of the purpose to enter into the international community. But with this political theory of “China not being a maker of the rules and is therefore not necessary to abide by them”, the country finds it right and proper not to follow the rules. Only that this thought was kept to themselves before and this time they said it out.

Therefore, if the international community, the United States in particular, want to “make China happy”, they have a few options: either they carry on the appeasement policy with China before 2009 and let China continue to enjoy the privilege of not having to obey the rules; or they might let China dominate the making of the rules when China wants to become a part of certain international agreements. If the international community finds these to be too hard to do and would rather not to include China, just like China’s “not getting any invitation” to TPP, the country would not be happy. And it is just so very important for the world to keep China, the world’s number two, happy.


18 comments

  1. 美国与无赖说“法”与虎谋皮 说道:

    中共国法律项目世界最多,可执行最少,无法无天绝不诽谤,如何才能让中国高兴?非常简单——定点清除九老龟以及它们的海内外子女,剩下的事就交给中国人民给办啦!这样才是能让中国高兴,中国人民高兴。

  2. 任仲夷 说道:

    只要各国首脑都变成Arthur Neville Chamberlain就ok了,再简单点说就是要每天能够说:“党和世界………”。可惜世界不接受由此而来的牛奶、猪肉和大米,尤其是“领导特供”,还有不测定P2.5、高房价、幼儿校车、贪官污吏等这些独裁衍生品,包括斯德哥尔摩综合症。

  3. ArchNew 说道:

    其实这个“中国未参与制订,因此不必遵守”的逻辑,中国也是没有的。因为它自己制定的国内法律都从不遵守,TG一向把自己凌驾于所有法律法规之上 。

    • cindy chen 说道:

      说的好。不过国内不明事理的洗过脑的太多。常常以为被美国欺负。
      是希望党国不要成为地球公害。真担心党国害死全世界。

  4. 陸民 说道:

    中國連自己的規則都製定執行的不好,何談其他

  5. 艾未未效应 说道:

    环球时报”艾未未们被祖国淘汰了” 我认为这些人的确是被当今社会淘汰了因为这些人是坚信 正义 真理 道德 公平的正道之路… 正不同流合污腐败 霸道 强奸民意 贪欲横行…所以艾未未们被祖国淘汰了 环球时报发文抨击认为”艾未未们被淘汰是社会潮流” 此话反面映衬是党国小集团恐慌的写照 令人们不可思议文章开头称艾未未近日连同网民开展的“借钱还税”活动参与人数三万人并不多,并举例说中国有十三亿人,光新浪微博就有一个亿。他同当年刘晓庆(只不过暴出宋祖英有个进中南海的红牌 江泽民就把她给办了刘晓庆为何不复议?)弱女子逃税案有别 它(党国)有这个胆将真相的经过向国人如实有个交待吗?可以肯定它(党国)没这个胆 它是向全国人民宣布道德良知的取向己尽走向不归路 为何中国社会走到这一步乱像就是心怀叵测少数(党国利益小集团)私心胜者 可以灭公(公共人民利益)的. 人生的价值 并不是用时间 而是用深度量去衡量的
    聪敏艾末未把他的行为艺术(行动和作为)小试牛刀 所谓逃漏税事件?是件值得全人类关注的重大事件! 一个普通有人性的老百姓关注自己国人(被无视杀害)在地震中受害… 怎么把它弄成了个政治事件… 搞不懂! 真的搞不懂呀!党国怎么这么笨呢…一个非常小 异常简单的问题 对于一个国家一点都看不起的小事 且把它弄成个全民的事件 又试想一个八杆子打不到(艾未未不是公司法人代表)的”发课公司”北京政府(税务凭证有种拿出来亮下)指控艾未未个人逃漏税1,500万人民币(真是个莫大的笑话.不可理解)与艾末未毫无相关 就是逃漏税十年间 据税务部门谈起他们说:”税务检察每个月都进行层层把关”国家税务部门这么多(十年)年都不闻不问 这是政府部门严重的失职 为此要追究这些部门的责任.实行国家赔偿艾末末的各种损(十赔的罚款)失8300千万人民币 此事件出来后 不到短短十天的时间给艾未未的汇款达850多万 这还是网民通过翻墙才知晓(在此感谢Google Chrome 浏览器搜索艾未未)的只有百分之五的知情民众 如果国内外的各大媒体大量报导上千万网友转载争当做艾末末的债主转帐汇款帐号:1)邮政汇款:北京朝阳区崔各庄乡草场地村258号100015路青收2)中国建设银行北京市分行前门支行幸福大街储蓄所6222800010131006244刘艳萍3)支付宝:[email protected])paypal:[email protected]全面公开当做艾末未债主 致少估算会有百分之八十老百姓会进行全民的道义审判 如果政府不给人民一个说法 13亿人民将给流氓一个说法 全球华人继续争当艾未末的债主!!!
    艾未未艺术体现的蝴蝶效应混沌现象是走向民主 民权 自由的现代非暴力试金石 其用”从来硬弩弦先断 每见钢刀口易伤”方式化解流血 不像”抬望眼 仰天长啸 壮怀激烈”自伤来的和谐 从北京民主墙和89.64杀害手无寸铁的学生及民众到迫害成千上万修练”真善忍”气功的法轮功惨遭党国非法关押(做好人)死伤无数学员到现在有无数国内外的民主斗士们奋斗了几十年从中可受到启迪?如何走向一个常态的国情?从四位现役军人的被击毙到奥巴马要中国像”成年人”那样行事 党国在国内外己是四面楚歌!!!
    昨天听说艾末未收到了二三十个国家的邀请函参加各种艺术展和艺术建筑设计总额过6000万美元 党国这次掉得大 如果不能成行和实施 党国就要赔偿他8000万人民币 看来这场官司要打到联合国进行全面调查 再听说艾末末的律师集团共计有几万人分布在国内各乡镇准备终审后的还款计划 各国都有他的律师团 海外的游子大陆人民欢迎你们早日归来 看看你们自由的母亲!!!母亲期待着你(我的儿女)!!!
    捌拾玖元陆角肆分(89.64)钱

  6. abc 说道:

    国际司副司长庞森同志说:“如果这些规则是通过协议共同制订出来的而且中国是其中的一部分,那么中国将会遵守这些规则。如果规则是由一个国家或是几个国家决定的,中国没有遵守它们的义务。”

    请问国际司副司长庞森同志, 你的意思是说中国的-宪法以及所有法律都不是你们共产党人制定的,而是外国律师事务所替你们制定的,是吗?

  7. paul 说道:

    何老师此文精彩!照着目前北京这样自以为是,简直又是天子上身,不可一世。外加深受当年老共们起家时自我标榜苦难深重的误导,看来是奔着对抗“八国联军”的路去了。
    中国走清末的老路,独立对抗世界的比第三次世界大战的可能性更大,因为中国几乎找不到一个盟友。与俄罗斯是互相戒备、互不信任,不太可能真结盟。与伊朗意识形态差距太大,目前是互相利用,结盟希望渺茫。
    被好欺负的中国人惯坏的中共当局,就如您所说是“十年一觉崛起梦”。

  8. 边道正 说道:

    赵紫阳说过,主导人类社会的国家,应是美国。奥尔巴马之所以要警示中国要像大人那样“遵守规则”,是因为中国(中共)自入世贸以来把经济秩序搞乱了。这还是一种很客气的一种措辞。TPP的规则应让中共论来订?!

  9. 锄奸 说道:

    抓到赛义夫,是民主自由的大胜利。

  10. AAA它祖宗 说道:

    就在昨天,利比亚政府军活捉了被国际法庭通缉的另一恶魔赛义夫!真是大快人心!可大家千万可别忘了;那个恶贯满盈的发言人仍逍遥法外。这个利比亚的五毛党徒,是利比亚宣传体系的魁首,他手下拥有一大批象中国五毛党AAA这样的流氓打手,颠倒是非制造谣言干尽了坏事。它在利比亚老百姓心里是个该杀的坏蛋!应一网打尽少留后患。

  11. Michael 说道:

    在国内玩弄权术是天经地义的,屁民拿他们是没办法的。但在国际关系上耍手腕,只能丢人现眼败坏名誉而已。

  12. TF 说道:

    中共现在面临的是全面外交溃败,更糟糕的是面对日益国际孤立的局势没有任何应对。TPP协议导致中共在东南亚彻底丧失主导地位,无法施展影响。这的确是美国东亚战略的成功布局,无疑是对中共自信心的一次沉重打击。共产党再要翻身比登天还难。

  13. kiday 说道:

    中共一直以为自己是谈判高手,是钻条文空子的高手,也的确它占到了不少便宜。现在世界都领教了它的下作无信义,TTP不带它玩就对了。而且这对中共政权的威胁极大,它确实很不高兴。国内网现在对TTP还是一片沉寂

  14. TF 说道:

    中共现在希望的就是普金复出,建立中俄联盟。没有俄罗斯的带领,中共在国际上无所适从。

  15. TF 说道:

    对台湾来说,选择TPP的民进党很可能在总统大选中击败签署ECFA的国民党,台北美国商会举办的双英谈就是成功地设局,对蔡英文的支持。不用涉及敏感的“一中”问题,TPP就是最好的新焦点,让亲中的国民党没有选择。 说不准中共在台湾的经营也会一朝垮掉。我非常佩服美国目前的对华政策,充满智慧非常有技巧性。反观中共政策愚腐,对TPP束手无策。

  16. 人云亦云 说道:

    中美兩國都有自巳的間題。有些問題都是非常嚴峻的。

    每個國家為了自巳的生存和利益,都是無所不用其極的。目前的形勢使美國想在經濟較好的亞州尋找更多生机,使失去的歐州和中東利益得到補嘗。南海利益被中共認為是核心利益。中美矛盾的尖銳是日日上升而不可避免了。美國的經濟越差,這一矛盾就越多,就越尖銳。大家都可以看到的, TTP 就是一個例子了。無論那個美國總統當道,中美的矛盾都會越演越烈。這是吾人的觀點。美國是不會讓中共高興。反之亦是。大家可擦目而視。

    何老師的大作,鄙人每篇都詳讀之。有些文章真的很好。佩服,佩服。但有些又不敢苟同。如這文章的題目能將中國改為中共就很切題了。要知道,現時一草一石均為党產。但在歷史的長河上,中共政扠不能,也不可能長存。總有一天,〝楚家三戶,誓必忘秦〞的歷史會在神州再現。

    中共不等于中國。希望何老師三思。 順頌教安。

  17. 乱云 说道:

    说道阮次山,让人想起在一节目里气愤地斥责美英瑞士“无权冻结卡扎菲境外资产”,阮次山说:“我是研究国际法的,这两天心里很不舒服,美国…英国…瑞士冻结人家的财产,你凭什么呢?”

    主持人问:“这不是根据联合国1970号决议来,”

    阮次山措手不及答:“不不不,1970号没有冻结这决议的”!

    联合国1970号决议里的【冻结】条文白字黑字,阮次山居然敢否认!

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