如何才能让中国高兴？

中国最近很不高兴，原因是以美国主导的亚太九国峰会召开，中国没被邀请加入TPP协议。正好《美澳新安全协议》又于此时签署，这无疑让中国更不高兴。

中国方面朝野论辩之士一齐出动，发了不少文章，各种反应光怪陆离。有代替TPP成员担心的，比如那些认为“TPP协议没有中国参加是没有意义的”；有让人看了后弄不清这个外交回合中谁是赢家，比如阮次山的奇文“回应TPP议题，中国给美国软钉子”；更多的文章认为这是美国打压中国的阴谋，如“美国借TPP发动亚太攻势 目标直指中国”， “美国已完成东亚战略布局 中国需严阵以待”，“东盟联合抗华阵线已经形成”，等等。如果不看中文世界之外的报导，也不熟悉中国对美国的“阴谋论”是老调调，准保以为世界进入以中美为对峙双方的第三次世界大战前夕。

但这些反应还是很准确地传递了一个信息：就是中国真的很在意这次未被邀请事件。亚太地区是中国的家门口，其中一些国家算是中国近年来刻意交好的近邻，比如新加坡。这次这么多远方宾客与亚洲地主举行联谊，作为亚洲最大国家的中国“未获邀请”，实在太不给面子，是可忍，孰不可忍？

且先看看TPP的由来。TPP原为2005年新加坡、新西兰、智利、文莱在APEC框架内签定的多边自由贸易协定，起初国际社会并未给予多少关注。直至美国“重返亚洲”，并于2009年开启TPP谈判之后，才为世界所关注。TPP成员至今扩展至9个。日本由于本国农业部门的反对暂未参加，刚宣布加入谈判。该协议有望成为世界最大自由贸易区。

中国近年来由于成为世界上几个最大：最大廉价商品供给基地、发展中国家最大的吸引外资国，最大的能源需求国，最大的外汇储备拥有国。有了这几个“最大”，大多数国家与中国在不同的层面上有着这样或者那样的关系，按道理，诸国即使基于本身利益考量，也不应该将中国排斥在任何经济协议之外。

且看看这次“主导了将中国排除在TPP之外”的美国如何说吧。

奥巴马11月13日在夏威夷APEC峰会闭幕记者会上，使用迄今最强烈的言辞，称美国对中国的货币政策和贸易做法正在失去耐心，中国“已经长大成人”，在与世界其他国家打交道时需要像“成年人”那样行事；他还要求中国停止“玩弄”国际体系，因为“受够了（Enough’s enough.）”，中国“该适可而止了！” ”路透社11月14日用“ Obama On Chinese Economy: ‘Enough’s Enough’ Of ‘Gaming’ The International System”这样的标题来报道奥巴马的这次讲话。

奥巴马整篇讲话重点就是中国必须遵守国际社会的规则。他还提到了中国对知识产权的严重侵犯，强调中国的领导人需要“理解他们现在所扮演的角色与 20年或是30年前不一样了。那个时候，如果他们打破一些规则，那没有什么关系，不会有什么大的影响。现在他们长大成人了。他们将不得不以负责的方式帮助经营这个过程。”

中国对自己不遵守国际社会游戏规则其实心知肚明。当年在签订WTO协议时，据说总理朱镕基在国务院内部就有个讲话，大意是目前成功签订协议是当务之急，至于签了后，我们怎样遵守，可以灵活掌握。不少专家出去讲演时，也是这个论调，即先进门要紧，一旦进去了，爱怎样行事，则看中国自己的方便了。以后的十来年当中，中国也确实是这样做的。

当然，这种不遵守国际社会游戏规则不限于经济领域，在政治社会等其它领域中，北京也是如此做的。比如至今为止，中国一共签署了23项与人权有关的各种国际公约，除《公民权利和政治权利国际公约》之外，至今已批准了22项。但考诸中国现实，几乎没有践履其中大部分人权公约的相关承诺。

再回过头来看中国为何这次未获邀请参与TPP协议。白宫在回应凤凰电视台记者“中国尚未收到TPP成员国邀请”的提问时表示，TPP并非邀请制，而是必须表达意愿，同时必须愿意接受TPP自由贸易协定的高标准。

美国《侨报》是中国国务院侨办在美国办的老牌外宣华文媒体，该报于11月14日发表了一篇“没有中国的TPP架空了谁？”其中有一段这样的话：“细读TPP的要求，不难看出这个协议有排斥中国之意。协议要求绿色产品的关税降低是中国现阶段难以达到的；希望GDP能耗要降低是针对中国的；希望国有企业在买卖商品和服务时，必须以商业方式进行运作，显然针对中国的国有企业。”

一向混淆是非、以传播混杂着部分真相的谎言为己任的《侨报》还算明白中国不达标这个事实。因为中国的产品质量不达标（污染及加工过程不合格不符合绿色产品标准）、单位产品能耗之高远超过国际标准，以及国企参与国际竞争凭借国家特权背后支持等，多年来饱受国际社会诟病，美国等一直在等待中国“长大成人”，但中国却利用人家对“小孩”的善意给予的学步时间，希望自己永远得到孩子受照顾的特权。

中国外交部官员的回答也颇有喜感。国际司副司长庞森11月13日回应奥巴马讲话时表示：“如果这些规则是通过协议共同制订出来的而且中国是其中的一部分，那么中国将会遵守这些规则。如果规则是由一个国家或是几个国家决定的，中国没有遵守它们的义务。”

庞森这一回答其实是理解中国为何不遵守国际规则的钥匙。从WTO一直到所有国际人权公约，中国都未曾参与制订，是参与该游戏的后来者。中国之所以签署协议只是为了拿到进入国际社会的门票，但基于“中国未参与制订，因此不必遵守”这一政治逻辑，违规是天经地义的。只是此话以前在心里搁着，这次才算说出来了。

所以国际社会尤其是美国，今后要想让“中国高兴”，或是延续2009年以前对中国的“绥靖政策”，让中国持续享有不守规则的特权；或是当中国要参与某项国际协议时，由它主导规则的制订。如果觉得这样太难办，不请中国参与，如TPP这样让中国“未获邀请”，中国也会不高兴。而让世界老二的中国保持高兴，对于世界实在太重要了。

China has been very upset recently. The US-led APEC summit commenced with China not being invited to sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement; at the same time, the ANZUS treaty was renewed, an incident that upset China all the more.

China’s sophists, both inside the government and outside, acted together simultaneously. They wrote many articles, and gave all sorts of bizarre responses: some of them were worried about TPP member countries, like those who thought that the TPP without China’s participation would be meaningless; others wrote articles that made it hard for readers to figure out which country won in this round of diplomacy, one such example was an absurd piece written by Anthony Yuen, “Regarding the issues of TPP, China gave the U.S. some soft nails”; and there were even articles presenting the interpretation that the new TPP shown America’s intention to contain China, including “U.S. launching attacks through TPP, targeting China ”, “U.S. has completed its East Asia strategic arrangements, China should be vigilant”, “ASEAN united front against China has taken shape”, so on and so forth. Those who read reports from only the Chinese media and do not realize that China’s “U.S. conspiracy theories” is a recurring theme would surely think that the world is on the eve of the third world war with China and the U.S. standing off against each other.

Still, these responses conveyed very accurately a message: China’s really disturbed by not being invited to the TPP. The Asia-Pacific Region is the front yard of China, some of the countries in the region, like Singapore, are which China worked to improve ties with in recent years. This time, so many guests from afar came socializing with hosts in Asia while the region’s largest country, China, was not invited. That truly was not giving China face, should the country put up with this or not?

Let’s first look at where did the TPP come from. It was initially a multilateral free trade agreement signed between Singapore, New Zealand, Chile and Brunei within the APEC framework. The agreement received little international notice at first. It was only until after the U.S. “returned to Asia” and kick-started the TPP negotiation in 2009 that the agreement obtained global attention. By now there are [ten] members in the TPP. Japan, owing to its agricultural sector’s opposition, is not yet a full member and has only just announced to join in the negotiation. The agreement could create the world’s biggest free trade zone.

In recent years, China has become the world’s largest in several areas: the largest base for low-cost commodity supply; the largest attraction for foreign investment among developing countries; the country with the largest energy demand; and the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves. Thanks to these “largests”, most of the countries have to have ties with China in one way or another. Logically, out of consideration of their own interests, the [TPP member] countries should not have barred China from any economic agreement.

And Let’s see how the United States, which dominates the TPP that excludes China, said about this.

On November 13, U.S. President Obama spoke at the closing press conference of the APEC summit, using the harshest remarks to this date, claiming that the United States is losing patience with China’s monetary policy and trade practice, China “has grown up”, and should act like an adult when dealing with other countries; he also demanded China to stop gaming the international system, because “Enough is enough”, China should know when to stop. The Reuters ran on November 14 a report entitling “Obama On Chinese Economy: ‘Enough’s Enough’ Of ‘Gaming’ The International System” to cover his speech.

The main point of Obama’s speech was that China must play by the rules of the international community. He also mentioned the serious infringement China has on intellectual property, stressing that China’s leaders need to “understand that their role is different now than it might have been 20 years ago or 30 years ago, where if they were breaking some rules, it didn’t really matter, it did not have a significant impact. Now they’ve grown up, and so they’re going to have to help manage this process in a responsible way.”

China is in fact fully aware that it has not played by the rules of the international community. Back when China signed the WTO agreement, reportedly Premier Zhu Rongji said inside the State Council that the most important thing was to sign the agreement. After signing, there is leeway as to how China would abide by the rules. Many specialists were saying something similar when they delivered talks abroad, that is, what matters most is to get in first. Once China is in, how the country would act depends on its own convenience. That’s indeed how China’s approach has been in the ten-odd years that followed the country’s signing of the WTO agreement.

Of course, it’s not just economy that China is not playing by the rules of the international community, Beijing is doing the same thing in other areas like politics and society. For instance, China has up to now signed in total twenty three international conventions relating to human rights; with the exception of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), the country has so far ratified twenty-two conventions. Yet when looking at the real situation in China, one would find that the country’s pledges to these conventions are mostly unfulfilled.

And then let’s look at why China was not invited to sign the TPP agreement. In response to the point, “China has yet to receive any invitation from TPP member countries, raised by a reporter from Phoenixgf Television, a White House press secretary stated that “TPP is not something that one gets invited to. It’s something that one aspires to. So I think with regard to China, or any other country, it is up to them to determine whether they are ready to consider the high standards that are required of a TPP partner.”

Qiao Bao, a long-time external propaganda outlet run by the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, published on November 14 an article in which the following lines appeared:

“Read carefully the requirements of TPP, it’s not hard to figure out the agreement has the intention to exclude China. The requirement that green products tariff be lowered is something that is hard for China to comply at this stage; that energy consumption per GDP be reduced is targeting China; that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) must operate in accordance with business practices when buying and selling goods and services is clearly singling out China’s SOEs.

While recognized as its mission to spread lies that are mixed with bits of truth and had been confusing what’s right and what’s not, Qiao Bao still has to acknowledge that China is not up to the TPP standards. Because of the products manufactured not meeting the standards as a result of pollution, and processing procedures not meeting the requirements for green products; of energy consumption per unit of products far exceeding international standards; and of the SOEs joining in international competitions with the support of state privileges and so on, China has for years been criticized by the international community. Countries like the United States have been waiting for China “to come of age”, yet China is utilizing others’ kindness toward a “child” and the time given to “learn to walk”, hoping that the preferential treatment it gets as a child would last forever.

And the reply from Foreign Ministry official was rather hilarious. In response to the speech by President Obama, Pang Sen, deputy director-general at China’s Foreign Ministry said on November 13 that, “If the rules are made collectively through agreement and China is a part of it, then China will abide by them. If rules are decided by one or even several countries, China does not have the obligation to abide by that.”

This answer from Pang Sen was effectively the key to understanding why China doesn’t play by international rules. From WTO to each and every of the international human rights conventions, China has not taken part in making them, it was only a latecomer. China signed those agreements only out of the purpose to enter into the international community. But with this political theory of “China not being a maker of the rules and is therefore not necessary to abide by them”, the country finds it right and proper not to follow the rules. Only that this thought was kept to themselves before and this time they said it out.

Therefore, if the international community, the United States in particular, want to “make China happy”, they have a few options: either they carry on the appeasement policy with China before 2009 and let China continue to enjoy the privilege of not having to obey the rules; or they might let China dominate the making of the rules when China wants to become a part of certain international agreements. If the international community finds these to be too hard to do and would rather not to include China, just like China’s “not getting any invitation” to TPP, the country would not be happy. And it is just so very important for the world to keep China, the world’s number two, happy.