政府太大，供不起
――中国宏观税负不堪承受之重
最近，中国社科院财政所发布了《中国财政政策报告 2009/2010》。报告显示，2009年按全口径计算的中国政府财政收入占GDP的比重已达32.2%。中国目前的人均收入最多只能进入中下等收入国家行列，按照世界银行的标准，这类国家的合理宏观税负标准约为20%；但中国的宏观税负标准却超过了高收入国家的30%。因此，2009年美国《福布斯》杂志推出的“全球税负痛苦指数排行榜”上，中国排名全球第二。
其实，税负过重只是中国人的普遍痛苦。这一庞大的财政收入数字下面还隐藏着不堪告人的现实：近十余年以来，为了满足日益庞大的政府开支，各级政府已经到了不择手段罗掘一切资源――美其名曰开辟新税源。民众的生存资源如农民的土地、城市居民的房屋都成了其掠夺目标。地方财政过度依赖土地及房地产收入的结果，使8000余万农民失去了土地，近400万城市居民失去了住房。
即使这样，绝大多数地方政府仍然债台高筑，据国家发改委公布，仅地方政府融资平台的债务便高达7.38万亿元。外界评估，这种情况蕴含极大风险，即“财政危机”。通俗一点总结，中国现在是政府太大，供不起；穷人太多，养不起；贪官胃口太大，填不满。
财政危机必将引起严重的社会混乱与动荡，古今中外不乏这类事例。对于大明王朝的倾覆，史家有句评语：“明亡，实亡于万历”。这句话指的是明万历皇帝掏空了明朝的国库，横征暴敛丧失了民心，催生了各种社会矛盾，埋下了明朝覆亡的祸根。明朝财政收入平均每年约为2900万两白银，万历皇帝好挥霍，又不象其祖父嘉靖善于理财。其统治前期幸得张居正为其充盈国库，但后来由于三大征军费浩大，共花费1200万两白银，再加上供养宗室的负担沉重，于是不断地向民间加派赋税，矿监税使遍布全国，所到之处搜刮民财，纠集地痞无赖抢掠中产之家财物，引起各地民众激烈反抗。翻开《明史·宦官传》，这类事例随处可见。最后引起诸多社会问题，日积一日，历天启帝再到崇祯，内忧外患，军费浩大，财政危机无可解，最后衰竭而亡。
罗马帝国的衰亡也与财政危机有关。自奥古斯都开始，罗马开始实施巨大的城市改造计划。壮丽的皇宫、凯旋门、功德柱、竞技场、万神殿等宏伟工程一项项落成，尼禄的挥霍荒淫更是旷古未闻。统治阶级奢侈豪华的生活与庞大的军费开支使帝国财政一天天恶化。尽管政治分裂，内战频繁，阶级矛盾和民族矛盾空前尖锐等都是促使罗马帝国灭亡的因素，但税收过重、财政状况恶化无疑是其中一个相当重要的因素。
宏观税负之重已令中国民众不堪承受，而军费、维稳费用与因生态灾难而引起救灾费用都急剧增加。从掠夺程度来说，明万历时期掠夺中产之家还主要是财物，而现在却是民众赖以生存的住房与土地。就在我写这篇短文之时，山东利津县陈庄镇众多村民在没有安置房和过渡期安置的情况下，被当地政府强令在两个月之内整体搬迁，村民们只得到了2万元至8万元的补偿，根本无法另筑新居，只能在窝棚里渡日。冷兵器时代，明朝人民还可以痛殴矿监税使；现阶段除了群体性反抗之外，不少走投无路者只能以自焚来表示反抗。社会反抗从2005年的8万起增至2008年的124,000起，说明官民矛盾已势成水火。如果不是当局镇压力量的过分强大，只怕现时的反抗比明朝不知激烈多少倍。
殷鉴不远，中国的执政集团要仔细想想，载舟之水――中国老百姓对超重的巨舟还有多大的承受力。无论如何，这124,000起群体性反抗不妨当作覆舟曲的前奏来听。
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何清涟女士，你好，我一直非常敬仰你。
我现在是一位在美国读书的中国学生。出国前，我自己的所见所闻也一直让我觉得，我的祖国生病了，很疯狂的在生病。
看到还有这么多如您这样有道德感有使命感的国人在，我真觉得很欣慰，也非常愿意紧跟你们的步伐。我把你的这篇文章也转发到了我的人人网上了，愿国内更多的朋友能看到了解到。
美国信息流通的自由让我有更多的机会认识真实的中国。我（@xiayipke）在twitter上有follow你和罗永浩哦~~~
持续关注！加油
欢迎常来，祝你留学生活愉快。
无比敬仰何清涟老师 我今年刚大学毕业 准备要去加拿大读硕士
大学期间 使用翻墙软件 偶然拜读到 何老师的很多文章
很理性的分析 看了之后很是佩服 很多本来很疑惑的东西
看完您的文章之后 心里立马释然
推特观光团前来围观。
自古至今，官员越来越多，百姓的压力愈大，当前中国的各种权力都被改革开放以来的既得利益者所掌控，官员加商人的官商政治、官商经济在中国大行其道，所有这些都是千年来中国的商人被压迫的自然反应，只能抱粗腿，必然就是当权派。而当前，钱，成了衡量一切的砝码。政府注重GDP,商人强调利润最大化，就连我们这些学生、农民都整天想着如何挣钱，唉，上海的100平的房子要200多万，农村的爹娘没有任何社会保障，，无语了，唉
说了这么多无逻辑的话，呵呵，支持你，成为你的第一个订阅者，呵呵
中国人民的忍耐力一流
养活一个庞大的组织机构仅仅是全国资源需要支付的刚性部分，而这个随时随地放纵贪欲和时刻破坏周围一切不合己意的事物的集团，要使它不受制约的欲望得到满足，理论上这个国家从今时直到永远的资源、劳动及任何进取都达不到。消灭这个可怕的癌症是当今世界各国当面对的一个现实，因为它未来的破坏力永远无人能事先全部知晓，铲除集权暴政是文明史演进于今日的必然内容，人类必须付出尚存有的代价，破坏那即将崛起的魔兽
秦汉以来逾两千年, 虽有统治精英提倡仁政亲民之儒家思想, 但总是因民众无法以和平的方式有效制衡统治阶级之腐败泛滥, 而导致社会矛盾日积至于终以大规模暴力冲突解决的地步, 而历史亦陷入一治一乱之恶性循环. 因此, 推广民主不但有利于社稷安宁, 更有利于巩固当局者的统治基础.
当今天下乃共产党所创. 当年无数先烈前仆后继, 而铸就开国领袖之伟大功勋. 先烈们不惜牺牲, 是为何? 只为共产党当年独立、自由、民主之美好理想与承诺. 但可惜封建文化包袱沉重, 建国初未能迅速地建立起有效的民主法治机制, 未能迅速地将民主法治意识普及万民, 因而导致民主建设之事业坎坷不平.
较之当年温饱尚不得而几无民主意识之百姓, 今日民众之经济基础与教育水平已有天壤之别. 因此, 虽民主进程一波三折, 但民主法治之潮流已是大势所趋.
泱泱大国, 民众十多亿, 党员数千万, 若让腐败横行而无民众之制衡, 长此以往将危及社稷, 亦将让今日之国民愧为炎黄子孙.
http://blog.sina.com.cn/awzhcn01
热兵器时代，一挺机关枪就可以镇压住上万人。通信，交通发达，镇压力量无孔不入。
说什么都没用。中国人只有告上帝来拯救！祈祷吧。只有神才能祝福神州大地。
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