政治不透明与权力运作的黑箱化,是谣言产生的最佳温床。中国本来就盛产谣言,每逢乱世与末世,谣言更是特别多。目前,身处网络2.0时代的中国人又仿佛回到了百年前的大清王朝末期,身置各种谣诼之中。
若追究起谣言始端,则缘于重庆市副市长、原公安局局长王立军今年2月出奔成都美领馆。2012年3月14日下午,当今中国最有权势的人物之一薄熙来被免去职务。从那天开始,几年来都是中外媒体关注焦点的薄督消失在公众视野中,莫说薄督将受朝廷何种惩罚这种事体,就连薄督驻跸何处,也成了公众不得与闻的“国家机密”。从此各种谣言纷传。
谣言可谓纷然杂陈,从看起来颇为真实的消息(如薄熙来被软禁),到耸人听闻难以置信之事(如政变),在海外的中文网站均能找到。国内由于薄熙来以及相关消息成了禁词,于是微博成了各种“隐语”的天下,这些“隐语”一天一变,仅用于指称薄熙来的隐语就有好几种,如“不厚”(以其姓喻)、“西红”(西南唱红歌)、“西红柿”、“三少爷”(薄在其兄弟中排行第三)。一些国际大媒体开始还沉得住气,对网上消息要多方查证,比如《纽约时报》与《国际先驱论坛报》谈到中共中央办公厅3月15日的《关于王立军事件初步处理情况通报》,还分别向几位看到过那份报告的中国官员查证核实。但到后来,一些大媒体也加入竞猜游戏,比如《金融时报》英文网刊在3月20日下午刊登温家宝呼吁平反“六四”曾遭薄熙来多次反对的报道;21日中国大陆网民突然发现国内网站解禁,可以搜索到有关“六四”的部分内容。于是这些消息又引发种种过度猜测。
细究起来,这些谣言分为三类:第一类是有关薄熙来及其妻子谷开来的腐败问题。第二类则是由薄熙来牵扯出来的高层矛盾问题。第三类就是有多少军中势力卷入了这场权力斗争。
由于中国官方沉默以对,中国人又只好拿出从新闻字里行间读真意的看家本领。据说一向为青年、中年人不屑一顾的CCTV晚间新闻,最近收视率大增,人们耐着性子将枯燥的国内新闻从头至尾看遍,为的是看有谁没出现。其中关于传说中的薄熙来后台、政治局常委、政法委书记周永康更是成了关注焦点。
谣言其实是专制社会民众的一种反权力武器。反观中国历史,流言四起并对人们判断形势起特大作用的时期,往往就是王朝步入末世乱世之时。从“谣言”这个社会切口管窥蠡测,我们可以洞见一个社会的世态人心,政治的基本状况及其发展趋势。近现代以来,中国至少经历了三次大的政治谣言纷传的年代,一是晚清,二是国民党政府败退至台湾前夕,三是1976年。
以清末为例,当时谣言纷传,其中以两大类为主,一类是预言清朝灭亡的谣言,1911年在陕西就流传着“不用掐,不 用算,宣统不过二年半”的民谣。另一类是渲染上层矛盾的谣言,譬如汪精卫1910年在北京以炸弹刺杀摄政王事,被谣传为炸弹是载洵、载涛两位皇室成员从伦敦带回交给汪,命其刺杀摄 政王。1910年10月间促成湖北新军哗变(即打响武昌起义的第一枪)的也是一则与士兵性命攸关的谣言,有人说官员们正在编制所有汉族士兵的花名册,将以革命党罪名逮捕并惩罚所有湖北新军的汉族士兵。这则谣言将新军士兵逼入了秦朝末年陈胜吴广等面临的“大泽乡困境”:服从必然死亡,反抗或有一线生机,于是乃有10月10日晚上的楚望台起义。
中国不是信息透明的国度,每次权力斗争都会引起流言四布,连中低层官员都乐传这类流言并相信。现阶段处在网络2.0时代,一个政府不管其如何善于控制信息,却绝无可能完全控制该社会的所有传播渠道,控制得越紧,谣言的产生与传播也就越离奇。因此,今年2月王立军事件以来各种谣言纷传的状态,为政治学与传播学的交叉学科政治传播学提供了一个非常有价值的研究样本。
一个社会的政治体系与传播体系之间是种共生关系。谣言之所以传播迅速,其实在某种程度上也反映了一个时代的社会矛盾和统治乱象,是社会面临大变革、大分裂、大崩溃的预兆。可以说,这些谣言正从根本上侵蚀着中国政府统治的合法性。在各种谣言的发酵刺激下,中国人对政府的不满与轻视日益增长。
Rumors corrode Beijing’s political legitimacy
By He Qinglian on March 23, 2012
Translated by kRiZcPEc
http://hqlenglish.blogspot.com/2012/04/rumors-corrode-beijing-legitimacy.html
The perfect hotbed for rumors to thrive would be where the politics is opaque and where power functions in a way that is concealed from the public. China has always been full of rumors, in particular when it is the time of chaos and confusion, or when a dynasty nears its end. At present, the Chinese people in a time of Web2.0 is surrounded by all sorts of rumors, as was the case when the Qing dynasty was about to end a hundred years ago.
All these rumors could be traced back to one incident: Wang Lijun, deputy mayor of Chongqing and former public security chief, went inside the U.S. Consulate-general in Chengdu in February this year. In the afternoon of March 14, 2012, Bo Xilai, one of the most powerful persons in today’s China, was relieved of his duties. From that day onward, Bo, who in the past few years had been in the limelight of domestic and foreign media, vanished from public vision. Even Bo’s whereabouts is now deemed as a “state secret” that the public should know nothing about, not to mention the kind of punishment that he may get from the authorities. As a result, all sorts of rumors fly.
A good few varying stories can be retrieved from Chinese websites outside China, some appear to be quite plausible, such as Bo being put under house arrest; others are clearly incredible—a looming coup for instance. Yet because Bo Xilai and news about him are censored inside the country, all kinds of “argots” pop up on Weibo and they change daily. Several argots are being used to refer to Bo Xilai alone: “not thick” (taken from Bo’s surname, which means “thin”); “Red in the West” (Red Songs sung in the country’s Southwest); and “third young master” (Bo is the third son).
In the beginning, major international media would still make the effort to verify leads appeared on the Internet. For example, when the New York Times and the International Herald Tribune reported the CPC central committee’s “Bulletin Regrading the Initial handling of the Wang Lijun incident” on March 15, they would respectively check with several Chinese officials who had read it. But later on, even some of the major media joined in the guessing game. For instance, in the afternoon of March 20, a report that Bo Xilai repeatedly objected Wen Jiabao’s calls to redress “June-fourth” was published in the website of the Financial Times; and on March 21, netizens in mainland China found out that all of a sudden the ban on the country’s website had been lifted and they could retrieve some of the information about the “June-fourth incident”. All these gave rise to even more far-fetched speculations.
After a closer look, I found that these rumors could be divided into three categories: the first would be about the corruption issues of Bo Xilai himself and his wife, Gu Kailai; the second would be the issues of CPC top level disputes that Bo Xilai brought into daylight; and the third would be the number of persons with military background who got involved in this power struggle.
As a result of the Chinese officials’ remaining silence, the Chinese people had no way but to exercise their special skill of deciphering the true meaning from between the lines of the news reports. Reportedly the CCTV evening news, a program that has long been dismissed by the young and the middle-aged, saw a great increase in its audience recently, people would patiently watch the boring domestic news from start to finish so as to find out who has not shown up. In particular, Zhou Yongkang, member of the Politburo Standing Committee and secretary of the Political and Legislative Affairs Committee, allegedly the one who backed Bo Xilai, has become a focus of attention.
Rumors are in fact what the people in authoritarian societies use as a weapon to resist those in power. Looking back at the history of China, one would see that the times when rumors abounded and played significant roles in helping people to make of the situation were usually when dynasties came close to an end and when the country was descending into chaos.
From “rumors”–an incision of any given society, we could have some insights into the state of things in that society, what people have on their minds, the basic situation of politics and its development trend. Since modern times, China has gone through at least three major occasions when political rumors were abuzz: the first took place in the late Qing Dynasty, the second on the eve of the KMT government retreat to Taiwan, and the third in 1976.
Take the late Qing Dynasty for example, at that time the air was filled with rumors mainly of two categories: one being predictions of the dynasty’s collapse; and the other focused on disputes and infighting at the top most level. When triggered the Hubei New Army mutiny (the prelude to Wuchang uprising) in October 1911 was also a rumor that had a direct relevance to the soldiers’ lives: the Manchu imperial government was compiling a roster of all Chinese soldiers, and all Chinese soldiers of Hubei New Army would be arrested and punished for being members of the revolution party. The rumor put the soldiers in an impossible situation which obedience meant death; but if they revolted, there might be a chance that they could survive. And so the Chu Lookout uprising on the night of October 10 broke out.
China is not a country with information transparency. Whenever a power struggle occurs, rumors would be everywhere, and even officials at lower levels would be happy to spread and believe in those. In the Web2.0 era, there is no way for any government to manage all communication channels in society, no matter how good at information control it may be; the tighter the government regulates, the more bizarre the generation and dissemination of rumors would become. This state of various rumors flying around since Wang Lijun incident in February this year provided a very valuable research sample for Political Communication, the interdisciplinary study of Political Science and Communication.
The relationship between a society’s political system and its communication system is a symbiotic one. The fact that rumors spread rapidly reflects to some extent the social conflicts and chaotic governance of a given period, and is an omen that a drastic change, a major division and a great collapse would occur. It can be said that these rumors are fundamentally corroding the legitimacy of the Chinese government.With all these rumors around, the Chinese people become increasingly discontent with and contemptuous of their government.
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人心思定,天下太平;人心思变,天下大乱。谣言四起,毕竟传播了海量的信息,让民众得闻许多“和平时期”难得的真相。
致命的谣言
谣言无处不有,大小不一,作用不等,但在末世、乱世谣言会特别多,作用特别大。这反证,谣言特别多而作用特别大的时代,或许正是末世、乱世的征兆。所 谓一叶知秋,从谣言这个小小的切口,我们可以洞见一个时代、社会的世态人心,基本面貌和发展趋势。以谣言观晚清,大致如此,那是一个谣言纷飞的时代,也正 是末世、乱世之将至,随便掰着指头就能数出几起因谣言而引发的大事。
1采生配药:1870年夏,一条“采生配药”的传言在天津广为流传,说是外国传教士跑到中国来是以传教为名,以建育婴堂做慈善为幌子,实是绑架杀死中 国孩童作为药材之用。谣言说得有鼻子有眼睛,搞得人心惶惶。天津知县找来法国驻华领事质问,双方争执中发生冲突,法国领事拔枪打死知县的仆人,激愤的民众 则将法国领事及其随从打死,事态进一步扩大,10名修女、2名牧师被害,法国领事馆、望海楼天主堂、仁慈堂以及当地英美传教士开办的4座基督教堂被焚 毁,3个俄国商人在冲突中丧生。直隶总督曾国藩奉旨调查,所谓“采生配药”纯属无稽之谈,在列强压力之下,中国不得不道歉、赔款、处死带头闹事的人,避免 一触即发的战火。这就是近代史有名的因谣言引起的“天津教案”。
2挖眼炼银:1891年,一则谣言传遍长江流域――西方传教士来中国名为传教,实际上专门挖中国人的眼睛来炼取白银,以赚取“眼球经济”。这则同样无 从考证其发源,荒诞不经的谣言,不仅目不识丁的底层民众相信并口口相传,越说越像,越像越神,连一些饱读诗书的 “文化人”也相信确有其事。谣言像一个伟大的指挥家,指挥着长江流域的民众采取近乎一致的反抗行动,扬州、芜湖、无锡、九江、宜昌等多个地方的民众纷纷对 当地国外教堂进行了一番打砸抢烧,传教士因此毙命,教堂财物因此遭哄抢。时任湖广总督的张之洞对此“群众运动”莫可奈何,归结为愚民们不辨是非,盲目轻信 所致。
3西政西法:义和团闹事,八国联军侵华,慈禧出走西安,再次丧权辱国。或是迫于内外压力,或是自觉唯新政可自强,慈禧太后决定自上而下搞新政。这本是 一件好事,但有一个谣言不胫而走,说是大清政府搞新政并不是为了自强,而是得了列强的旨意,要实行彻底洋化中国的西政西法。被洋化的中国还是老祖宗交到我 们手里的中国吗?所以,必须反对这种洋化中国的西政西法。在一些地方,民众反新政很激烈,“指学堂为洋教,指电线为洋人所设,指统税为洋税”;政府要搞人 口调查,就传言政府要以此来“抽丁当兵”和“按人勒税”,一些地方的民众在激愤之下,掀起一股打学堂、砍电线杆、毁税局的风潮。
类似的谣言还有很多,比如1909~1910年间,江苏等地流传着官府调查户口时查人的生辰八字,是要把人的灵魂抽出来卖给洋人等。在此,特别拿辛亥 革命前夕,疯传于武汉的“捕杀剪辫者”的谣言,这条谣言说得轻点,引起了社会混乱,说得重点,直接扣动了辛亥革命那支枪的扳机,摧垮了200多年的大清政 权,威力真是太大了。
中国政府的强悍之处就是我就当你不知道,你说啥我都不理的这种坚强神经。
事实证明,这确实是中国维持稳定的不二法门。因为中国人确实健忘。
rumor,fatal rumor.
心近,有着真实的质感。
碰到老乡。